MERGED: CHINA: Next Superpower?

[Visual C#]

---

I'd like to hear your thoughts on this matter. Do you think that China will eventually rival or even surpass the United States as a global superpower, a la Cold War Part Deux?

Personally, I think: fat chance.

[tasyo]

In terms of military power, I am not sure but it is still possible. As for economic power, it is highly probable. Foreign markets, even the US will start courting China because of the high demand from them. They have a big population.

[AntitaniC]

nope... as long as china cannot create their own carriers... they can never beat US....

US carriers and they're high tech jets are highly sophisticated they can sink china if they want too...

[poy]

I think they can...eventually....naa na gani sila space programs di ba?

[erwin_rommel]

if they continue to acquire leaked top secret information and technologies from the us, maybe but its still far from reality i guess

[poy]

maski sa mga product blueprints, nagkadaghan na ang ila gicopya

One of the bigger issues is their own version of the chevy spark/daewoo matiz.....the QQ

[Visual C#]

China right now has a lot of problems that they'll need to fix if they are to stay as a united country or as a superpower. I hink it is out of the question for them to extend their reach far beyond their borders given these problems.

China's Problems:

- Geography: China is an island. It is obviously not surrounded by water except for its eastern flank, but it is surrounded by terrain that is difficult to traverse. There's the Siberian steppes to the north, the Himalayas and impassable jungles to the southwest. They can't expand; they currently have 1 billion people living near the coast, an area that is barely half the size of the United States. This also presents challenges (and it already does) with 1/3rd the arable land per person as the rest of the world. Current Chinese territories also contain non-Chinese buffer regions, such as Xinjiang and Tibet. The only real way to expand is the coast. And that's where a lot of problems begin.

- Massive income inequality: Historically, China, when it engages in trade, it has do it through the oceans. The end result is that the coastal regions become wealthier, but the poorer interior regions do not. The government is hard-pressed to satisfy both, but can do neither. If they try to bolster the central Chinese regions, the coastal regions will protest, and will try to get the support from foreign influence. This has huge potential to cause massive social unrest.

- An economy heavily anchored on exports and bad-performing loans: China right now is what Japan was in the 1980's. Fueled by government backed loans and high savings rates from citizens, Japanese businesses were able to borrow money very cheaply from the government. It fueled production for exports, but it didn't really matter whether the businesses were getting any profit. Loan after loan, the debt structure grew too massive until it became unsustainable. That's why the Japanese went through a severe recession in the 90's. China is heading on the same direction. Recent estimates put China's bad loans to be around $ 600 - 900 billion, around 10% of their current GDP. Without enough domestic demand to pull the country's economy, any economic hiccup in their largest trading partners would put their economy at risk. At this time, it is holding itself together, but we will most likely see the start of a long and harsh decline of the Chinese economy by 2015 or 2020.

- Other miscellaneous problems: environmental degradation is already being felt across the country. China is now the world's no. 1 contributor of air pollution around the world. China currently has 20 of the 30 most polluted cities on Earth. And they're doing very little to get it resolved.

Regarding their military: yes, it is rapidly modernizing, but it will take years for them to actually match US naval power. US naval power is larger than the next 13 largest navies combined. Creating and maintaining a navy takes a very very long time.

So my whole point is, China is not going to be a major superpower in the next 50 years. It has a long way to go.

[BaDz Abadia]

possible gyud kaau na siya bro if and only maau magdala ang officials sa china...

[hulagway]

nope i dont think so,

[Motownkid]

IMO, not in the next 100 years or so.

Ka-imagine lang ko kung superpower na ang China, then ang mga Europeans, Hispanics & other Asians adto na mag immigrate instead nga sa US.
Basin mahimo na unyang minorities ang over 1 billion population sa China.

Or probably they won't need/accept that much immigrants kay overwhelming na ilang manpower.