MERGED: CHINA: Next Superpower?

[gareb]

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some points;

1.) China can harden its stance on its territorial claims as it already has the political and the economic clout that it has longed for for decades now. it can bully neighboring nations into submission dangling the abrogation of trade agreements that China has over them. our country, obviously is no exception.

2.) an all-out war, however, is something that the Chinese will be very hesitant to engage. simple logic would dictate that the gains for an all-out war is too small compared to what they will lose, foremost would be international prestige and respect. for a long time they have labored to achieve this level of success, they will not throw it all away just for a few measly islands.

3.) if this can be considered as a "hostile stance" by China against Philippine sovereignty, the same is somewhat true for foreign multi-national corporations who lobby to amend the constitution and allow them to buy vast tracts of land. how about labeling congressmen who support this move as traitors?

4.) the modernization of the AFP was never meant to address the deficiency of the AFP to counter foreign threats but to bolster its anti-insurgency capabilities. the AFP initially was made to counter outside threats, relegating the PNP to deal with domestic disturbances. however, as it appears now, the main focus of the AFP is to quell domestic insurgency. if the government is serious on modernizing the AFP to even significantly counter any chance of hostile moves from China, it would simply bankrupt the entire economy.

[leonell]

we can, their expansionism could already threaten our islands on the South China sea. China is a fast growing powerhouse and it thirsts for more oil than the U.S would ever have. And yet the army is not giving territorial defense weight and just on those rebels. They could do those at the same time of only they are expanded and modernized to a high extent.

[bedouin]

china is always a threat to us particularly over territorial, Spratly islands.

unsaun man pud pag-advance sa ato mga military kung ang ato military pud kay apektado sa politic's drama...dili na makatigayun.

[gareb]

i have to agree with Visual C# on most aspects.

i would just like to add though that the coastal regions are progressive not just because of trade but because it had the agricultural capital, being fertile to begin with, compared to the largely desert western regions.

the Chinese government is obviously set on focusing its efforts on its more productive coastal regions since it is politically more stable compared to the interior regions, a move that not only make things worse for income inequality, but exacerbates the political turmoil especially in Buddhist Tibet and the Muslim northwestern provinces. this alone is a minus point for China on the domestic front and the political aspect of its state capitalism.

it indeed has displaced germany as the third largest economy, and has had considerable success in projecting its "soft power" (cultural and economic). in its efforts to become the "manufacturing capital of the world", it has for many years resisted calls to float its currency, making it artificially much lower than the dollar. (same with the Japanese yen in the 80's and the 90's). unlike Japan who eventually was able to shore up domestic demand, even if such successes were at best moderate, China still hasn't posted significant per capita income increases that could warrant a subsequent increase of domestic demand any time soon.

this largely explains its non aggressive stance towards the major established powers, since it needs markets for its manufactured goods. and since the international economic arena is still dominated by the dollar, figuratively and literally speaking, any attempts by anyone to unseat the US as the prime economic power would be futile.

in this scenario, it is safe to say then that the US cannot help but support China in its quest for becoming a major world power, and China cannot help but not challenge the global economic order.

[haroldking]

Dili pa cguro:

1. Technology advance kaayo ang US
2. Economy nag salig paman ang China sa mga foreign
3. Geography mura mag lisod Island man
4. in terms of Allies mura daghan ang US


ug naa pa cguro uban na rason research sa ko ha.

[leonell]

China could already be considered a Superpower if you consider the size of it's domestic economy of 1 Billion people plus the fast industrialization of the country.

But, in terms of the extent of it's military, kumingking ra gihapon na siya sa capabilities sa U.S Army samot na if you include the entire Western World (Britain, Australia, France, Germany, Spain, Canada and etc.). Though, soon enough we can see China emerging as the main rival of the U.S just like Russia in the Cold War. With it's continually increasing military esp. nuclear capabilities, it will soon emerge as the most powerful country in the world.

What's worrying is the situation of our country rather than just China emerging to the Global stage. Remember, the Philippines has been the closest ally of the U.S since the World War I, and up until today, we have an existing military and defense agreement with the U.S. On the other hand, we have been closely working with China for more trade and in the economy, we also are to some extent having military cooperation.

The case is, what if the U.S and China's rivalry becomes a global proxy war? Where will we side? To our former colonial master and closest military ally or to our new-found economic partner? Will we align ourselves with the U.S and the Western World or to China and it's allies? We are in the middle of an ever changing world, the pedestal of Power won't come to a single country forever, it is continually changing......... one will fall and the other has to rise. We can never tell who of the two would retain their status or decline in the length of time.

This should be considered a challenge to our diplomats and our foreign policy because if we make a mistake then we might end up totally caught up in between their tug-of-war for dominance. We may end up losing one ally for the other so we must make wise decision as to how we could maintain friendly relations with BOTH of them so we can benefit from their military assistance and foreign trade.

[chad_tukes]

what constitutes a superpower country? a superpower country should be able to influence the WHOLE WORLD by having these four:

- military
- economic
- political
- cultural

the United States has all four. we can argue that China has number two, but certainly not 1, 3, and 4. China becoming a superpower is as cloudy as its skies over Beijing.

not gonna happen soon... so let's stop worrying.

[trax]

murag mao gyud mahitabo, ang us kai dako bya ug utang sa china

[moot]

China is 'the' sleeping giant and I entice every one to be critical about this country. It might seem like they are still sleeping but if you look very closely the giant have actually woken but quiet more so deceiving. China is now one of the fastest growing economies in the world and is the second largest oil consumer. "Oil" that's really the keyword. 58% of China's oil imports come from the Middle East region. Although, at the short-term, China is best to think that keeping good relations with the US ensures them oil access in the Persian Gulf, it has been however, building up long-term strategic links with countries hostile to the U.S. providing arms for Iran in particular. In addition to its special relations with Iran, China is also known to be a provider of WMD technologies to rouge states including North Korea, Syria, Libya and Sudan.

Large Chinese companies are buying oil assets on the cheap. They are hoarding trillions of dollars, and is practically the U.S new banker. China owns about $350 billion worth of U.S. debt and holds $800 billion in US dollars as part of their foreign exchange reserves.

China has already begun the exploring process for gas reserves on its side of the East China Sea. They have territorial disputes between countries like Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei and Japan. This giant is actually playing its cards, or should I say, has been playing its cards you just didn't know it.

[joshua259]

one thing you guys should keep in mind. if they can't show off there military power and strength they can't be a superpower.