Aquino widens poll lead

Numbers can still change depending on local bets

Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 00:46:00 04/07/2010




MANILA, Philippines—Ahead in all areas and socioeconomic classes, presidential candidate Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III has widened his lead over rival Manuel Villar, whose numbers dropped significantly over the past two months, results of a survey conducted last month by Pulse Asia Inc. show.
Thirty-seven percent of the respondents, up by a percentage point, said they would vote for Senator Aquino, Liberal Party (LP) standard-bearer, had the elections been held last month.
Support for Senator Villar, presidential candidate of the Nacionalista Party (NP), dropped to 25 percent from 29 percent in February and 35 percent in January.
Aquino said he was elated by the results of the Pulse Asia survey, which he reckoned moved him closer to winning the presidential race.
He paid tribute to his allies, volunteers and supporters for helping him maintain his lead since he declared he was running for president seven months ago.
“This is proof that our people are determined to walk the road to change for the good of everyone,” he said.
He vowed to dance like South African leader Nelson Mandela if he succeeds in seeing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo leave after nearly a decade in office.
Pulse Asia’s latest survey, conducted from March 21 to March 28, used a multistage probability sample of 3,000 adults and had an error margin of plus-or-minus 2 percentage points.
Deposed President Joseph Estrada was third with 18 percent, the same level of support he got in February.
Administration standard-bearer Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro was fourth with 7 percent, while Sen. Richard “Dick” Gordon of Bagumbayan and Bro. Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas each had 2 percent.
Other candidates had a voter preference of below 1 percent—Nicanor Perlas (0.3 percent), John Carlos “JC” de los Reyes (0.2 percent) and Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.1 percent).
In the vice presidential race, Aquino’s running mate, Manuel “Mar” Roxas II, continued to enjoy a significant lead over other candidates with a 43-percent voting preference. Villar’s running mate, Loren Legarda, was a far second with 23 percent, while Jejomar Binay had 19 percent.
Others received 3 percent or less—Bayani Fernando (3 percent), Eduardo Manzano (2 percent), Perfecto Yasay (1 percent), Jose “Jay” Sonza (0.5 percent) and Dominador Chipeco (0.1 percent).
Nine percent of the respondents refused to name or remained undecided on their preference for president, while a similar percentage refused to name or were also undecided on their vice presidential preference.
Mandela is idol
“One of my idols is Nelson Mandela. When our brothers led by Nelson Mandela ended apartheid, he was so euphoric that he could not help himself but dance,” said Aquino in an interview with reporters. “I think I’d be euphoric, too, if we end our calvary under Mrs. Arroyo and I would dance.”
Mandela’s victory in South Africa’s all-race elections in 1994 was made memorable by his effusive celebration after giving a victory speech.
LP spokesperson Edwin Lacierda said Villar’s falling ratings showed the public’s reaction to the “Villarroyo” alliance, referring to the alleged support of Ms Arroyo and her husband for Villar.
“The people have realized that the Villarroyo tandem is no fabrication. Villar is the administration’s secret candidate. The connections are becoming clearer everyday,” Lacierda said.
Saddened
Villar, who has denied the Villarroyo alliance, was saddened yet unfazed by the survey.
Campaigning in Ilocos Norte province with the support of the children of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Villar said the “black propaganda” against him and his decision not to hit back at his accusers could have affected his survey standing.
He said “we were too kind and did not retaliate against the black propaganda that was not true.”
Villar said he had gotten used to the fluctuating numbers in the surveys, relying on the adjustments his team had made in his campaign that enabled him to narrow the gap between him and Aquino.
Adjustments
He said the latest Pulse Asia survey needed him to have those “adjustments,” which he called “strategies” that he could not divulge.
“We’ve already fixed it and the truth is there’s a latest survey that would show that [I’m] closing in,” he said.
In Bacolod City, the wife of Villar downplayed the results of the survey. “We are not worried,” said Las Piñas Rep. Cynthia Villar when asked for her reaction to the Pulse Asia survey
Command votes
Officials of the ruling Lakas-Kampi-Christian Muslim Democrats were elated by the slight improvement in Teodoro’s rating, but vowed to work harder on the ground to get him elected.
“That’s a welcome development,” party secretary general Raymundo Roquero said.
Roquero, however, said that the party believed more in the support of local officials and their constituents than survey results.
Party vice president, Prospero Pichay, said the “command votes” of governors counted more than survey results.
Not credible
Villanueva said he did not find pre-election surveys credible because he could not believe that his ratings had not improved after several months of campaigning.
“Last year [my rating] was 2 percent and it’s the same until now?” he asked. He said by now his rating should have gone up since Bangon Pilipinas had taken the campaign to many places.
Perlas said he distrusted surveys because he felt that the firms conducting them had already “written off” lesser known candidates like him.
Perlas said despite this, his ratings had actually been on an “upward trend,” which he attributed to more personal interaction with voters through sorties around Metro Manila, the Visayas and Mindanao.
32-point lead in ABC
In the socioeconomic class ABC, Aquino got the support of 49 percent, a 32-point lead over Villar who received 17 percent.
Aquino had the support of 37 percent of Class D compared with the 25 percent for Villar. In Class E, Aquino got 34 percent and Villar, 28 percent.
In Metro Manila, Aquino received the highest level of support among the regions with 42 percent. Villar got 17 percent.
Aquino was also ahead in the rest of Luzon with 33 percent compared with 26 percent for Villar. In the Visayas, the LP standard-bearer received 41 percent and Villar, 30 percent.
Aquino was also leading in Mindanao with 37 percent. Villar’s 23 percent was even lower than Estrada’s 29 percent.
Long way to go
Roland Holmes, Pulse Asia president, said that a month and a half was still a long way to go.
“In previous elections, our last survey was done three weeks before the polls, and certain shifts were still noted between that and the earlier survey round,” he said.
Holmes said the “complexion of the campaign” had changed because the campaign period for local positions had begun.
“Now, the presidential candidates are making sure that they’re either directly in touch with the voters or strengthening their connections on the local level.”
Bias for urban areas
Legarda said Pulse Asia and other polling firms usually engaged in selective sampling of voters across the country.
She said pollsters had “bias or limitations” for urban areas, which means that the concentration of respondents were in densely populated areas because of time-constraints.
“This looks like mind-conditioning,” she said, explaining that this scheme only included social classes A, B, C, excluding rural D and E classes. Reports from Kate V. Pedroso, Inquirer Research; Gil C. Cabacungan Jr., Nikko Dizon, Dona Z. Pazzibugan, TJ Burgonio, DJ Yap and Michael Lim Ubac; and Carla P. Gomez, Inquirer Visayas