Is the Philippine stock market going to crash?

[polunio]

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PSEi closed yesterday at 6,975.09 down for three straight weeks now.

On weekly chart, I draw a line around 32.8. If you will look at the line, every time RSI hit that line or just below and bounce back (circle), price bounce back also and continue to go up again. We will be looking forward that this will happen again in RSI for the following weeks for us to see an uptrend market on week to week basis.
But the problem here is MACD, it is still in bearish mode and crossing below zero. Bearish MACD is more reliable as bearish if it is below the zero line. Also in term of price, PSEi is experiencing lower lows.

Feel free to share your analysis.

[polunio]

After 3 consecutive down weeks, finally PSEi closed yesterday at 7,067.73 higher from last week closing price of 6,975.09. From our observation last week on weekly chart, we will notice that RSI bounce back. That is why we have an up week.
And If RSI will continue to go up, we can see short term up market. Short term because RSI is still below 50.
But the problem here is the MACD, it is crossing below zero line in bearish mode and still no sign of changing its direction.

In daily chart, RSI break the diagonal line which their short term resistance. This is good sign of short term bullish. The main concern is the previous move of RSI that have circle. Looks like RSI is facing the same direction and if that happen, the short term up will be very short and will change to down days ahead again.

[snake_eye]

After 3 consecutive down weeks, finally PSEi closed yesterday at 7,067.73 higher from last week closing price of 6,975.09. From our observation last week on weekly chart, we will notice that RSI bounce back. That is why we have an up week.
And If RSI will continue to go up, we can see short term up market. Short term because RSI is still below 50.
But the problem here is the MACD, it is crossing below zero line in bearish mode and still no sign of changing its direction.

In daily chart, RSI break the diagonal line which their short term resistance. This is good sign of short term bullish. The main concern is the previous move of RSI that have circle. Looks like RSI is facing the same direction and if that happen, the short term up will be very short and will change to down days ahead again.

how I wish I know now how to read those charts....MACD, RSI and what do you call the other one?

[polunio]

how I wish I know now how to read those charts....MACD, RSI and what do you call the other one?

I will try to make a post on reading charts...

[polunio]

Here is my personal analysis for PSEi this week:
For the last 3 days, PSEi was up and it was closed yesterday at 6,889.78 but still down from last week’s closing price of 7,067.73.

On daily chart, price is stock in a range (with 2 arrow down). If that will continue to happen, we will expecting down again on first half of a week and up on 2nd half of the week. But, if the price break its resistance and continue to move higher, we can expect a short term up market. The problem here is the RSI, it is still playing at its resistance level. RSI needs to go up to level of 50 for us to experience a more stable market.

On weekly chart, RSI still playing around 30. We will still experience down market if this will continue to happen. And for us to experience up market, RSI needs to go above the level of 50 but it seems too far way. Aside from that, MACD is going below zero line in bearish mode without sign of change.

In conclusion, we will still experiencing down weeks, or best is just sideways.

Maybe you can share your own analysis.

[polunio]

PSEi closed yesterday at 6,886.74 down a little from last week’s closing price of 6,889.78. As we can see on the daily chart, price went above the line. Let’s hope that the price stays above that line for us to see a little up market on daily basis. But, as I always saying, RSI need to go above the level of 50 for us to see stable up market.

On the weekly chart, still the same prediction. We are still in down market since MACD was crossed the zero line in bearish mode. Also, RSI is just playing around the level of 30. RSI needs to go up to level of 50 for us to see an up market.





You are welcome to share your own analysis...

[21guns]

The PSEi will hit a bottom somewhere near 6500 and that should be a buying spot before a possible short term bull market, sorry I can not share my reference chart data for these insight.

[noboss]

better to trade individual stocks if youre not into blue chips, and make bias if its uptrend or downtrend. stay away on downtrend. go on uptrends. usually blue chips have the same movement as the whole PSE index. so many uptrending stocks even the market as of now is downtrend.

[polunio]

better to trade individual stocks if youre not into blue chips, and make bias if its uptrend or downtrend. stay away on downtrend. go on uptrends. usually blue chips have the same movement as the whole PSE index. so many uptrending stocks even the market as of now is downtrend.

Agree... you can find uptrend stocks in your brokers recommendations or you can learn how to spot an uptrend stocks.. there are simple technique on how you can spot them.

- - - Updated - - -

PSEi closed yesterday at 7,043.16 higher from last week’s closing price of 6,886.74. It is good that PSEi is up for the straight 4 days this week.
On daily chart, price broke its resistance line and stays above that level. RSI also went a little bit above the level of 50. If this will continue to happen, we can see a good market on day to day basis.

On weekly chart, I have drawn another line around 38.2 (38.2 is number from Fibonacci retracement). RSI went a little bit above 38.2 and if RSI stays above that line, we can see slightly up market or worst is sideways. When it comes to MACD, seems like MACD line wants to go up and want to cross signal line.

All in all, we can see up month this December if the RSI stays above the level of 50 on daily and above 38.2 on weekly.



http://i.imgsafe.org/c02bfcb40e.png

[wildtrax23]

Will not crash.. .. expect more investments next year