‘Sana’y wala ng katapusan?’
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Editorial
‘If the shift to a parliamentary form of government pushes through and Gloria Arroyo becomes eligible to run for Parliament, who will end up as prime minister? No cigar for getting the right answer.’
THE opposition in the Senate simply did not have the numbers, making . passage of the VAT amendments bill clearly inevitable. Sen. Joker Arroyo broke ranks with the administration, but a couple of other administration senators, who originally were against the standby authority for President Arroyo to jack up rates, in the end toed the Palace line.
But the administration senators who flip flopped have scored "pa-pogi" points and, we guess, that’s victory enough for them, especially those seeking reelection in 2007. Two years from now, they can claim on the stump they heroically fought to save the people from Malacañang’s painful tax exactions. They could point to President Arroyo as the one personally responsible for ratcheting up the VAT rate.
Anyway, that’s water under the bridge and we cannot begrudge those seeking reelection for seeking to protect themselves from the expected backlash when the full effects of the higher VAT take their toll. What worries us is the fact that elections are scheduled in 2007 and the distinct possibility that all the projected gains from the higher VAt rate would go down the drain.
The timetable for higher VAT is what raises alarm signals. The enrolled bill gives President Arroyo the authority to raise the rates a year from now. That means May or June 2006. Based on the calculations of the Senate ways and means, keeping the VAT rate at 10 percent while removing exemptions will raise P60 billion yearly. Raising the rate to 12 percent will raise collections by more than double to P135 billion (the additional collection comes up to P75 billion).
Arroyo has repeatedly been saying the additional collections will be plowed back into basic services and infrastructure. Do we have reasonable grounds for believing her? Well, her term ends in 2010 and conventional wisdom says she will spend the remaining years seeking to consolidate her legacy as president.
But what if she has ambitions beyond 2010? First thing she has to do is consolidate her hold on the incoming Congress in 2007. Second is for her to pack a proposed constitutional convention with loyal delegates. If the shift to a parliamentary form of government pushes through and Gloria Arroyo becomes eligible to run for Parliament, who will end up as prime minister? No cigar for getting the right answer. And please do not forget those famous last words uttered on Dec. 30, 2003 about abandoning any election plans.
She almost bankrupted the treasury in the May 2004 elections. With an additional P135 billion of revenues yearly, Arroyo can again buy the 2007 elections whosesale and install herself as prime minister.
"Sana’y wala ng katapusan, eh, Mike?" (with apologies to writer Raul Gonzalez., in many people’s view, the better Raul Gonzalez).