Current Events: Philippine Inflation Rate - the Rise and Fall

[digitalsuperman]

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Mo insist man ang DA bro nga wala tay problema or shortage sa rice, it is just ang hoarders ang naay problema.

I don't know much ug asa kutob ang function sa DA, kung pwede bana sila mo sanction sa mga hoarders, dili mo baligya kay gi hoard para mo saka ang presyo inig baligya sa mga hoarders ngadto sa market.

Murag ingon ani ba, ang imong trabaho is to make sure there is adequate supply ug bread sa market. So you make preparation and plan for the raw materials aning bread. You estimated and reported, ok na, ready na tanan, nahatag na nako tanan avenue para maka himo na ug bread ang mga bakeshop.

Only to find out nga walay naghimo ug bread.. gi suta nimo, naay bread sila gipanghimo ang mga bakeshop pero dili sila mobaligya, kay ilang gi pugngan kay nag paabot sa pagsaka sa presyo.

Unsa may imong buhaton? Imo ba silang prisohon kay dili mo baligya?

when it comes to commercial rice siguro i believe the DA. pero kaning mga rice distributors basin rapud they are holding back releasing more rice nagpaabot sila musaka gyud ang price which domino effect sa supply and demand.

[firestarter]

Sigeg pasakas Interest rate.. Until when until when..

BSP digging deeper into inflation toolbox

Lawrence Agcaoili (The Philippine Star) - September 6, 2018 - 12:00am
MANILA, Philippines — The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) needs to dig deeper into its ‘toolbox’ as inflation raced above six percent for the first time in more than nine years to hit 6.4 percent in August, prompting economists to call for another aggressive monetary action this month.

The BSP has set an inflation target of two to four percent between 2018 and 2019. Based on its latest assessment, it expects inflation to average 4.9 percent this year, 3.7 percent next year, and 3.2 percent in 2020.

“An unfortunate confluence of cost-push factors continues to drive consumer price inflation in August beyond the acceptable target range,” BSP Governor Nestor Espenilla Jr. said.

The BSP is pursuing carefully coordinated efforts with other government agencies in implementing non-monetary measures to further mitigate the impact of supply-side factors on inflation.

Economic managers have been pushing for the amendments to Republic Act 8178 otherwise known as the Agricultural Tariffication Act of 1996 that could reduce inflation by 0.2 percentage points this year and 0.6 percentage points if passed and implemented within the fourth quarter.


The BSP chief also cited the weak peso brought by emerging market uncertainties as well as the elevated oil prices that continue to impact transport and power prices.

“These are adding to the cost-push pressures. However, it is equally apparent that strong domestic demand is making it too convenient for producers and traders to pass on higher costs and possibly more to consumers,” Espenilla said.

Monetary authorities, Espenilla said, would be looking more closely at the latest data to reassess the medium-term inflation path.

According to Espenilla, the central bank would also need to consider external developments and actions of the US Federal Reserve that exert undue pressure on the peso.

“Under the circumstances, we will weigh the need for further monetary policy action. Appropriate recommendations will be presented to the Monetary Board on Sept. 27 at its next policy meeting. It is most critical at this point to restore inflation back to the target range soonest and securely anchor inflationary expectations,” Espenilla said.

The higher than expected inflation in August has prompted economists to call for another 50 basis point rate hike in key policy rate of the BSP.

“Bringing inflation back below target will require more policy response. BSP has already increased the policy rate by 100 basis points since May, but real interest rates are still negative. We now expect the BSP to hike the policy rate by another 50 basis points to 4.50 percent at the upcoming September 27 meeting. Further moves beyond that cannot be ruled out,” ANZ economist for Asia Shashank Mendiratta said.

Euben Paracuelles, economist at Nomura Securities Ltd, said the drivers of inflation have broadened, warranting a monetary response from the BSP.

“We continue to expect a further 50 basis points of rate hikes this year. Our baseline is for 25 basis point hikes at the September and November meetings. However, this higher-than-expected pick-up in headline inflation could further stoke inflation expectations, raising the risk of BSP hiking again by a relatively aggressive 50 basis points this month, with possibly more to come,” Paracuelles said.


Read more at https://www.philstar.com/business/20...JxQ8aezVjHt.99

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You're so ready to spread this BS of a propaganda but you have no evidence to back it up.. Reminds me of some people. Hmm

By BS you mean my Bullshit? --

I'd rather not answer bro, kay naay mga tawo naglihok para ana, dili ako. Atat ra lage kaayo ka bradier?

Let's hear your Bullshit kuno bradier.. ug unsa na? kanang makatabang nga Bullshit bradier.. kapoy sigeg tubay sa mga negative nga tawo, maka stress,.,... #labanantonio laban lang.

[firestarter]

when it comes to commercial rice siguro i believe the DA. pero kaning mga rice distributors basin rapud they are holding back releasing more rice nagpaabot sila musaka gyud ang price which domino effect sa supply and demand.

I think bisan kinsa nga negosyante bro, basta sa tanaw nimo nga in the near term mosaka ang price, one would rather wait for that opportune time.

Mao ning nahitabo karon, nag wait and see ang mga traders. Igo ang supply, saka ang demand.. Mao ni gitawag sa BSP ug cost-push ..

Karon pa pud ko ani.. kay dili ko bright parehas anang paka aron ingnon nga abogado diha.. hahaha..

Mo init iyang dugo basta ako.. I don't know why, parehas tingale mig dugo mga berde... hahahaha

[firestarter]

By BS you may take it any way you like it.

The fact is you already answered. You even started a thread about it. Karun mu ingon ka na you'd rather not answer kay nasakpan imo BS? Naunsa gud tawn..

Answer the question, since ikaw ang TS and ikaw ang nihimo ato na statement. What actions against inflation are being done but were not highlighted by the media? Kay otherwise, you would be accused of spreading f*ke ne*s

Please please please dont flatter yourself

Read the news bradier, I think ako naman gi post diha.. toink...

Gi answer ra nako ang mga sensible posters.

Where is your Bullshit... wala man lage ka mag post sa imong mga Bullshit sir?

[firestarter]

Read the news? You said things were being done that arent being highlighted by the media. You posted something that has always been highlighted by the media. BSP meetings are very, very transparent. That is how they set policy. The question was, what are these things not in the media? F*ke ne*s nasad ni imo "bradier?"

Bradier, are you obsessed with trying to prove me wrong? ...

Naa koy sala nimo bradier?


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Naa koy ma ma remember ani ba..

The opposition..

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And I'd like to quote the original intent of this post..

Kay hot kaayo ang inflation issues karon..

I thought it would be better for us to discuss on this. Below is historical data of Philippine inflation rate.

https://tradingeconomics.com/philippines/inflation-cpi







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July inflation boosts rate hike odds

[firestarter]

Yes, I have your original intent in mind.

You said there are things being done to combat inflation that are not highlighted by the media, dili man siguro na off-topic if mangutana ko nimo what these things are.

Pero if dili ka katubag ana, pasabot ana BS na imo statement. Stop trying to take things personally all the time and start arguing using logic.

So gusto ka nga akong i admit nga sayop to nako nga ni ingon ko ana?

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[digitalsuperman]

I think bisan kinsa nga negosyante bro, basta sa tanaw nimo nga in the near term mosaka ang price, one would rather wait for that opportune time.

Mao ning nahitabo karon, nag wait and see ang mga traders. Igo ang supply, saka ang demand.. Mao ni gitawag sa BSP ug cost-push ..

Karon pa pud ko ani.. kay dili ko bright parehas anang paka aron ingnon nga abogado diha.. hahaha..

Mo init iyang dugo basta ako.. I don't know why, parehas tingale mig dugo mga berde... hahahaha

lol.ayaw nana patuli boss. taka lang nag tabi.ikaw ra gibuang ana. anyways, mao mao to gi threat ni duterte ang uban rice traders. ni take opportunity man gud sila sa kakuwang sa NFA rice. naa gyud pagkuwang ang DFA di gyud na ikalimod pero when it comes to shortage, i don't think ingon ana ka grabe, siguro ang buffer lang ang medyo didto nagkaproblema kay ang mga warehouse sa NFA naa paman daghan gipakita man to.mismo si pinol gi interview naa man sulod ang NFA warehouse. ang problema lang ang buffer plus di pud ingon ana kasayon ang storage sa rice. i hope and pray nga duterte and DA would tap the military para sa logistics sa NFA rice labi na padung sa mga islands kay daghan naman mga dagko barko ang military. regarding sa inflation, naa man safety net ang government ana it was already expected because of TRAIN, para ma lessen ang impact naa man 4P's, if pobre ka pwede ka mo apply para sa 4P's which is enough raman pud.

[firestarter]

Well, one has to admit to his BS if he cant back up what he said.. Especially if TS.

Murag dili mana maoy gusto nimo bradier. I'm flattered that somebody was taking interests in me, but I'm heterosexual.. sorry ha?

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OnTopic:


August inflation fastest in nearly a decade

NEED FOR ACTION
“An unfortunate confluence of cost-push factors continues to drive consumer price inflation in August beyond the acceptable target range. Much of it has to do with food supply shocks, [r]ice in particular,” BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. told reporters via Viber yesterday, adding that these factors “warrant more decisive non-monetary measures.”

“Elevated oil prices also continue to impact transport and power prices. At the same time, the peso (along with other currencies) is being adversely affected by emerging market uncertainties and a strong US dollar. These are adding to the cost-push pressures.”

The central bank governor further cautioned that the strong domestic demand is “making it too convenient” for producers and traders to pass on higher costs to consumers.

The food-alone index for August was 8.2%, higher than last month’s 6.8% and last year’s 3.1%. The PSA noted that, except for corn, most food subindices posted higher annual mark-ups in August.

“The government, particularly the Department of Agriculture, must act quickly and fervently with a sound judgment to ease the increasing prices of agricultural commodities which are the main drivers of inflation,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia was quoted in the statement of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) as saying.

“While the government’s economic team expected inflation to peak in the third quarter before tapering off towards the latter part of the year, inflation in August is largely beyond the median market forecast. That is why we remain steadfast in putting forward measures that will address prices, especially for food.”

NEDA issued a separate joint statement of the Cabinet’s economic development cluster which met Wednesday “to address food inflation.” The meeting — among representatives of BSP, NEDA, the Department of Finance, the Department of Budget and Management, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), the Department of Agriculture (DA), the Department of Justice, the Bureau of the Treasury and the National Food Authority (NFA) Council — drew up a list of “immediate reforms for reducing food prices”, including “immediately” releasing 4.6 million sacks of rice from NFA warehouses “to the market across the country”; authorization by the NFA Council for importation of 5 million sacks of rice that will arrive in the next one-and-a-half months and another 5 million sacks to arrive “early next year”; facilitating the distribution of imported fish to wet markets; formation of teams consisting of law enforcers and farmers groups to monitor transport of rice from ports to NFA warehouses to retail outlets; DA to provide cold storage for chicken and, with DTI, to put up outlets where producers can sell directly to the public; while the Bureau of Customs “will prioritize the release of essential food items in the ports”.

In a separate statement, Albay Rep. Clemente “Joey” S. Salceda, senior vice-chairman of the House of Representatives committee on ways and means, said that the August inflation was “self-inflicted.”

“Ultimately, the 6.4% [August inflation figure] was really due to the fact that we did little or nothing. We can no longer blame [market profiteers] and rice hoarders. The only notable measure we implemented in response was the 50 basis point (bp) increase in policy rates of the BSP, but it would take a lag of 6-18 months for monetary action to gain traction in containing aggregate demand,” Mr. Salceda said.

“[W]hat is more worrisome is that it would reverse gains in poverty reduction and hunger mitigation since the main culprit is food inflation… Thus, the inflation of the poor (lowest 30%) is estimated at 7.4%.”

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) — which is composed of the Department of Budget and Management, Department of Finance, and NEDA — will convene later this year to adjust upward its inflation assumption for the year, even as it will keep the estimate for 2019, and possibly review the economic growth target as well.

“The DBCC meets quarterly; so in the light of this we will call for a meeting,” Budget Secretary Benjamin E. Diokno said in a media briefing yesterday when asked whether the government will review its economic assumptions.

Asked whether the DBCC’s new inflation forecast could reach 5%, Mr. Diokno said: “There’s always a possibility.”

The body currently forecasts a 4-4.5% inflation rate for 2018 and 2-4% in 2019.

He said the body will also consider adjusting the gross domestic product growth for this year, following the slower-than-expected six percent economic growth figure in the second quarter that fueled a 6.3% expansion last semester against the year-ago 6.6%.

OUTLOOK
“The BSP will be looking more closely at the latest data to reassess the medium-term inflation path. We also need to consider external developments and US [Federal Reserve] actions to the extent these exert undue pressure on the peso,” BSP’s Mr. Espenilla said.

“Under the circumstances, we will weigh the need for further monetary policy action. Appropriate recommendations will be presented to the MB (Monetary Board) on Sept. 27 at its next policy meeting. It is most critical at this point to restore inflation back to the target range soonest and securely anchor inflationary expectations.”

Economists interviewed were largely in agreement that the latest inflation data made the case for another rate hike.

“The chances of another aggressive monetary policy action has zoomed as inflation surged. Another 50bp policy rate hike at the Sept. 27 meeting is a real possibility,” said ING Bank N.V. Manila senior economist Jose Mario I. Cuyegkeng.

ANZ Research likewise expects a stronger policy response, saying in a research note: “With inflation surpassing six percent for the first time since March 2009… bringing it back below target will require more policy response given cost-push pressures in the economy.”

“We now expect BSP to increase its overnight reverse repurchase rate by 50 bp at the upcoming Sept. 27 meeting to 4.50%, compared to our earlier expectation for a 25 bp hike.”

For Nomura economist Euben Paracuelles: “[T]his higher-than-expected pick-up in headline inflation could further stoke inflation expectations, raising the risk of BSP hiking again by a relatively aggressive 50bp this month, with possibly more to come.” — VMPG and Elijah Joseph C. Tubayan with C. A. Tadalan

By Melissa Luz T. Lopez, Senior Reporter

INFLATION likely zoomed to a fresh multi-year high in August due largely to higher food costs, analysts said in a BusinessWorld poll, boosting the case for another rate hike this month to douse surging prices.

A poll among 14 economists late last week yielded a median inflation estimate of 5.9%, which if realized will mark another high coming from July’s 5.7% and from 2.6% in August 2017.

This also matches the estimate given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Department of Economic Research on Friday, in the middle of a 5.5-6.2% range. This is the first time the BSP gave a specific figure for headline inflation ahead of the release of official data due on Wednesday.

Analysts point to thin rice supply as the main culprit, worsened by heavy rains that damaged crops. Food items account for more than a third of the consumer basket used in tracking overall price movements.

“Retail prices of rice (up by about 10% year on year) and sugar (up by about 15-20% since early 201 increased recently amid shortage in local supply. Prices of other food items also increased after storms/floods in recent weeks,” said Michael L. Ricafort, economist at the Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.

Analysts’ August inflation rate estimates
Higher global crude oil prices also added to inflation pressures last month alongside a rise in electricity rates, the analysts added.

The impact of the first of up to five planned tax reforms continued to be felt in August, with second-round effects still sending price shocks eight months into its implementation.

“The continued effect of the TRAIN (Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion) law, which raised the prices of fuel, automobile, mineral, and coal, as well as the further weakening of peso against the greenback may have also boosted local inflation,” said Guian Angelo S. Dumalagan, market economist at Land Bank of the Philippines.

Last week, BSP Governor Nestor A. Espenilla, Jr. said he expected prices of basic goods to have climbed even faster in August, with the pace, however, not breaching 6%. He added that TRAIN-related pressures are “slowly tapering off.”

Still, some analysts gave higher forecasts while others were unconvinced that August had seen the peak.

“I’m hoping that this will be the highest this year, but prices of oil and other food items such as rice have not yet stabilized so we might still experience higher inflation but at a slower rate,” said Mitzie Irene P. Conchada, associate dean at the De La Salle University School of Economics.

Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, said he sees the peak occurring some time next quarter.

“As such, the BSP may further consider raising interest rates in its September meeting,” Mr. Asuncion said.

“Although September is the start of the harvest season and is expected to influence a downward push on rice prices, we anticipate a more realistic and practical impact on supply and actual prices by October.”

Prices of widely used goods and services surged by an average of 4.5% as of end-July, well above the BSP’s 2-4% full-year target range for 2018. The central bank, which sees full-year 2018 inflation averaging 4.9%, expects the pace to return to target next year.

The central bank has blamed supply-side factors such as surging global oil prices, additional excise taxes on certain products which took effect this year, as well as weather disturbances that disrupted food supply — factors which are beyond the scope of the BSP’s policy tweaks.

Still, the BSP fired off its strongest response in a decade by raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in its Aug. 9 policy review. That pushed yields 100 bps higher so far this year, with the benchmark yields now ranging 3.5-4.5%.

“Monetary Board will likely hike policy rates by 25 bps if 6% inflation is exceeded,” Victor A. Abola, economist at the University of Asia & the Pacific, said as he gave a 6.1% estimate.

Ildemarc C. Bautista, vice-president and head of research at the Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., cited the need for another 25-bp hike to “address second-round effects.”

The BSP will review its policy stance for the sixth time this year on Sept. 27. Mr. Espenilla said monetary authorities have “kept the door open” for future rate adjustments in a bid to ease price pressures, with the view that the economy can still absorb further tightening moves while keeping the growth momentum intact.

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lol.ayaw nana patuli boss. taka lang nag tabi.ikaw ra gibuang ana. anyways, mao mao to gi threat ni duterte ang uban rice traders. ni take opportunity man gud sila sa kakuwang sa NFA rice. naa gyud pagkuwang ang DFA di gyud na ikalimod pero when it comes to shortage, i don't think ingon ana ka grabe, siguro ang buffer lang ang medyo didto nagkaproblema kay ang mga warehouse sa NFA naa paman daghan gipakita man to.mismo si pinol gi interview naa man sulod ang NFA warehouse. ang problema lang ang buffer plus di pud ingon ana kasayon ang storage sa rice. i hope and pray nga duterte and DA would tap the military para sa logistics sa NFA rice labi na padung sa mga islands kay daghan naman mga dagko barko ang military. regarding sa inflation, naa man safety net ang government ana it was already expected because of TRAIN, para ma lessen ang impact naa man 4P's, if pobre ka pwede ka mo apply para sa 4P's which is enough raman pud.

Ang kana diay buffer, pila ka days diay ilang buffer? Mao lage ni akong nabantayan kay mao na pud ni ang "IN" karon, so maoy sigeg balik2x..

Ambot nahilum naman ang EDSA.. Basin kani usa karon nga problema.. Dili man ta mahutdan ug problema ani.. hahaha

[digitalsuperman]

Ang kana diay buffer, pila ka days diay ilang buffer? Mao lage ni akong nabantayan kay mao na pud ni ang "IN" karon, so maoy sigeg balik2x..

Ambot nahilum naman ang EDSA.. Basin kani usa karon nga problema.. Dili man ta mahutdan ug problema ani.. hahaha

murag naabot to sa three days nalang ang buffer which is delikado kaayo na nga buffer stock kay prone man ta sa disaster boss. then ang procurement pud sa imported rice dili pud ingon ana kasayon daghan kaayo agian. diha nagkulang gyud ang DA.

nagtuo man gud ang DA nga ang local rice growers maka provide ug daghan stock. ang problema kay pwerte ka ubos sa yield kay tungod sa mga bagyo ug mga kusug nga ulan. so didto napaksit. kakita ko ana sa interview ni pinol sa ANC man guro toh. but naa na go signal from BSP to purchase and import.but DA didn't do it early. nagpaabot pa sila.tsk.tsk. naa lapses ang DA gyud.hope they learn from this mistake.

[firestarter]

murag naabot to sa three days nalang ang buffer which is delikado kaayo na nga buffer stock kay prone man ta sa disaster boss. then ang procurement pud sa imported rice dili pud ingon ana kasayon daghan kaayo agian. diha nagkulang gyud ang DA.

nagtuo man gud ang DA nga ang local rice growers maka provide ug daghan stock. ang problema kay pwerte ka ubos sa yield kay tungod sa mga bagyo ug mga kusug nga ulan. so didto napaksit. kakita ko ana sa interview ni pinol sa ANC man guro toh. but naa na go signal from BSP to purchase and import.but DA didn't do it early. nagpaabot pa sila.tsk.tsk. naa lapses ang DA gyud.hope they learn from this mistake.

Ahhh mao diay... Walay back-up plan ang DA bro, kung ingon ani.. Next time, bantayanan ning mga ingon ani.

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Gay jokes to hide his incompetence and his propensity to spread f*ke n*ews. From the TS no less. Hmmm.

Sorry bradier, all the while I thought nga gay ka. I was wrong..