Ghost Towns of China

[Visual C#]

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They are already partly successful in this transition. That is why their economy continued to grow at close to 10% during the height of the American financial crisis when many of America's trading allies including the Philippines experienced severe slowdowns or even outright contraction.

The people predicting China's failure are just engaging in wishful thinking. China will be the dominant force in Asia in this century whether people like it or not and it will never be a democracy, not in our lifetime or in the next. It is as inevitable as the sun setting at the end of the day. Whether for good or for ill this is the reality that we must deal with if we as a country are going to succeed in an Asia where China, an authoritarian state, is ascendant.

They ARE headed for collapse. Give it 5-10 years. It's bound to happen. They are a country TRYING to transition to a domestic demand-based economy, and while they are having modest success, it is in the long term unsustainable. No country has been able to grow at 10% annually for more than 30 years, and China won't be an exception. It will go through a wrenching readjustment that Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan (and other ASEAN countries) have already gone through. The only difference with China is that it is huge, with more people than all of the other Asian countries (except India) combined. Any economic slowdown on their part will mean policing 1.3 billion people who will be running amok for the lack of economic development or opportunity. They are constrained by their geography; they have a land area comparable to that of the United States, but with 3 times the population. Most of the land to the north and in the central highlands are uninhabitable. Also look at their history; it has been a cycle of strong centralization at the cost of economic development (remember Mao, but then reversed by Deng Xiaoping), a powerful empire but constrained by their geography (remember the dynasties), and periodic decentralization due to warlordism (remember the periods between dynasties, when there was a power struggle), and also foreign domination (the Mongols did it once, and the Europeans, Japanese, and Americans sliced China amongst themselves in the late 19th century to the early 20th century).Even now, China is admitting that its economy is still highly imbalanced.

Their priorities will remain to be trying to keep the country together, rather than foreign policy adventures. Any attempt in their part to expand their economic and military power will in fact be kept in check by the United States navy, and to an extent, the Japanese and the Russians.

Their history and geography don't work out pretty well for them. Then again, I could be wrong. Let's see what happens in 10 years.

[monroy]

As I said before, it's all wishful thinking. But at least you admit that you could be wrong.

Which country has very high levels of debt? U.S. or China? Which country has a greater oversupply of housing? U.S. or China? Most of the doomsday scenarios you posted are more likely in the U.S. than in China.

[Visual C#]

As I said before, it's all wishful thinking. But at least you admit that you could be wrong.

Which country has very high levels of debt? U.S. or China? Which country has a greater oversupply of housing? U.S. or China? Most of the doomsday scenarios you posted are more likely in the U.S. than in China.

China's unstoppable economic rise IS wishful thinking. Would you care to refute the points I raised earlier about why China is headed for economic collapse?

Oversupply of housing? It was an asset price bubble, caused by the failure of mortgage-backed securities; to say that it was an "oversupply of housing" is a vast oversimplification.

Debt is measured against net worth. If you owe 50,000 pesos but you have a net worth that's negative, you'll have problems if you lose your job. If you owe a million pesos but you have a net worth that's in the billions, you'll have no problem. The US has a relatively staggering debt in the trillions yes, (US$ 11 trillion if I'm not mistaken), but it has a net worth that's in the hundred trillions. Not to mention that the debt is denominated in.. US dollars, which their Federal Reserve has full control of.

[p26]

sayanga aning mga lugara oi..unsa kaha plano sa gobyerno aning mga insik?

[diatabz]

The problem with China is that it depends so much on an abundant supply of cheap labor. The PRC has a huge labor force composed mostly of low-income, uneducated and unskilled men and women, most of whom come from the rural areas. This is China's biggest asset, and the main reason why the rest of the world depends on the nation for exports. However, it's important to note that the PRC's exports are a result of foreign investment firms--China itself doesn't have very good products of original designs. Why else is the country's disregard for intellectual property such a big issue?

Corporations and governments are only voting with their wallets when they do business with China. But what happens when that stops? A perfect example of such a scenario is in China's plans to cut down exports for rare earth minerals. The United States itself already has an abundant supply of rare earths, the only catch is that these are too messy to process--a dirty job best left in the hands of the Chinese.

But what about trade? China isn't the most trade dependent country in Asia--that title still goes to Japan.

Politics is another factor that will shape China's future. The PRC has learned lessons from the USSR's failure by understanding its poverty and opening markets in the 80s and 90s, but it's still not doing things right. China is afraid of its own populace, which is why the government is doing all it can to censor news and crack down on protests.

A great economy needs to be more than just dependent on manufacturing. Detroit is a perfect example of this--after being one of the richest cities decades ago, it is now the poorest. China also needs a thriving domestic market, and this can only be attained by having a majority of entrepreneurs and skilled workers.

[monroy]

China's unstoppable economic rise IS wishful thinking. Would you care to refute the points I raised earlier about why China is headed for economic collapse?

What entails a wrenching readjustment to you, and why do you equate that with a collapse? Those haven't stopped all the countries you mentioned from achieving economic supremacy so they are just bumps in the road that all countries experience on occasion. The U.S. has just had a major "wrenching readjustment" are you saying it is now on the brink of collapse?

Oversupply of housing? It was an asset price bubble, caused by the failure of mortgage-backed securities; to say that it was an "oversupply of housing" is a vast oversimplification.

An oversupply of housing is what results when there's an asset price bubble in the housing market.

Ever been to Florida these days? Most of the McMansions are empty and uninhabited. How is that different from the empty housing estates in Western China?

Debt is measured against net worth. If you owe 50,000 pesos but you have a net worth that's negative, you'll have problems if you lose your job. If you owe a million pesos but you have a net worth that's in the billions, you'll have no problem. The US has a relatively staggering debt in the trillions yes, (US$ 11 trillion if I'm not mistaken), but it has a net worth that's in the hundred trillions. Not to mention that the debt is denominated in.. US dollars, which their Federal Reserve has full control of.

In order to sustain such high levels of debt you need to remain employed and inflation needs to be low, both of which are uncertainties in the current U.S. environment. It doesn't matter if the debt is denominated in U.S. dollars, its worth is determined by the faith other countries have on the currency, which at this point is rapidly eroding.

[Visual C#]

What entails a wrenching readjustment to you, and why do you equate that with a collapse? Those haven't stopped all the countries you mentioned from achieving economic supremacy so they are just bumps in the road that all countries experience on occasion. The U.S. has just had a major "wrenching readjustment" are you saying it is now on the brink of collapse?



An oversupply of housing is what results when there's an asset price bubble in the housing market.

Ever been to Florida these days? Most of the McMansions are empty and uninhabited. How is that different from the empty housing estates in Western China?



In order to sustain such high levels of debt you need to remain employed and inflation needs to be low, both of which are uncertainties in the current U.S. environment. It doesn't matter if the debt is denominated in U.S. dollars, its worth is determined by the faith other countries have on the currency, which at this point is rapidly eroding.

A 'wrenching readjustment' can potentially devastate a country, if not done properly. South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and even the United States have all went through it over the past few years, and it did not cause massive social and political unrest, as those states have powerful governments and favorable geography that imposed pain, and came out stronger than before. The United States is not going through a 'wrenching readjustment', because it already did; the transition from an industrial to a post-industrial economy has already been completed. If you are referring to the stimulus programs and projected tax cuts; these are nothing but just a perpetuation of US government policy since the start of Reaganomics, not 'wrenching readjustments'.

China on the other hand, is a very different story; if you were listening to what I said earlier, every time the country tries to goes through a sea change, it either clamps down so hard that it is unified at the cost of economic decline, or decentralizes to the point of complete economic imbalance, with the coastal regions becoming richer and gravitating towards the interests of foreign powers, the poorer interior regions demanding that the central government tax the coast to give the coastal regions money, and a central government trying to balance it all together. The past 30 or so years have been a delicate balancing act for the Chinese government, and I have serious doubts as to whether they can maintain it, because like I said, no country has been able to maintain 10% growth forever, and stay stable.

And you still haven't refuted any of the points I presented about China's weaknesses. Please do try.

Try reading up on this link if you have the time (or if you actually care):
http://web.stratfor.com/images/GEOPO...a%20080615.pdf

[erwin_rommel]

bankrupt gyud ang china ani. laliman ka sa puhonan ana unya walay na halin? tabla ra nag nagsunog og kwarta

[Ekoydakoykoy]

basin substandard ang mga materials gigamit ato.. kaibao ka made in china...hahah although dli tanan product sa china low quality .. wala lang basin mao sad nay rason

[Crimson_Viper]

hmmm.. gi restrict na nila nga town.?

ngiluha ana uy kung mu trespass ka ba, kanang ikaw ra usa.. halaaaaa kahadluk, way la.in mag kisaw.kisaw, ikaw ra isa..