The UNPD has already predicted the disastrous effects of such an idiotic and ill-advised endeavor such as the ZPG.
[code] "The primary consequence of fertility decline, especially if
combined with increases in life expectancy, is population aging,
whereby the share of older persons in a population increases
relative to that of younger persons."
"Globally, the number of persons aged 60 years or over is
expected almost to triple, increasing from 672 million in 2005 to
nearly 1.9 billion by 2050. Whereas 6 out of every 10 of those
older persons live today in developing countries, by 2050, 8 out
of every 10 will do so. An even more marked increase is expected
in the number of the oldest-old (persons aged 80 years or over):
from 86 million in 2005 to 394 million in 2050. In developing
countries, the rise will be from 42 million to 278 million,
indicating that by 2050 most oldest-old will live in the
developing world."[/PRE]
Now let's analyze the article benign0 so heartily recommends. The author of the article on ZPG, the so-called "esteemed" Manuel Gallego III, seems to have unexplained lapses in logic, as in this section from his article (the error is in boldface; note that I have quoted MORE than needed so as not to quote him out of context):
Code:
In the foreword of the Population Policy for South Africa, April
1998, Geraldine J. Fraser-Moleketi, Minister of Welfare and
Population Development, states:
"Our country is one of the few countries in the world where the
fertility rate has been significantly reduced while the
majority of the population has remained poor, which contradicts
the belief that the majority of our people are poor because
they have too many children."
The observations derived from Table 1 and the above statement
represent a dominant school of thought, which suggests that
mitigating population growth in and of itself does not alleviate
poverty. Unfortunately, while such school of thought is arguably
correct in every respect, the same has diminished the emphasis
to mitigate population growth as one of the critical elements
in alleviating poverty -- particularly with respect to developing
economies. In the case of developed economies, which generally
exhibit low or even negative population growth rates, such
de-emphasis on mitigating population growth, as one of several
means of alleviating poverty, would appear appropriate. However,
in the case of developing economies like the Philippines, which
generally exhibit alarmingly high population growth rates (from
the least educated sectors of society), mitigating population
growth, among other factors, should be at the forefront of poverty
alleviation. Even the above statement of South Africa's Minister
of Welfare and Population Development, while supporting the said
school of thought, is indeed a tacit admission that most other
countries that have mitigated population growth have resulted
in the reduction of poverty.
Now how in the world did Gallego conclude that the statement of the South African Minister admits what it clearly denies? Gallego openly admits that the idea that the dominant school of thought is right in saying that "overpopulation doesn't cause poverty, but then turns around and effectively claims it does, justifying it by saying it happens in poor countries. What an unjustified leap in logic! He clearly doesn't understand that he has just contradicted himself. Neither does he understand his own data and quotations. He obviously shares bening0's propensity for bad reasoning.
Now is this the kind of "brilliant" thinking Bening0 wants us to heed? Such nonsense!
Nancy Suleik, in an article in the Financial Executives (FINEX) Digest has this to say (emphasis added):
Code:
"It is, however, intellectually dishonest to continue to harp on
this old argument which has been used to justify sterilization,
abortion and contraception, when the UN itself came out with a
report in 2001 that debunked the most dire predictions about the
consequences of population growth. The study said that these have
been proven unfounded, and remain unlikely to occur even if world
population rises up to 8.9 billion in 2050. Moreover, arguments
about rapid population growth resulting in the depletion of
non-renewable resources such as oil and minerals have also been
disproved with findings that although the consumption of such
resources has risen, the estimated amount of resources as yet
untapped has also risen. Likewise the environment argument --
pollution, habitat destruction, global warming, etc. -- has also
been shown to be specious, as these environmental concerns have
largely been "due to modes of production, not to the size, growth
and distribution of population."
Sheldon Richman of the CATO Institute, in his testimony on International Population Stabilization and Reproductive Health Act further revealed that the United States, England, Hongkong, and other countries became rich during unprecedented growth in population. The most densely populated nations are among the richest. There are many nations much richer than the Philippines where population density is greater. There are also many nations much poorer than the Philippines where population density is lower. Low population density may contribute to poverty.
Code:
COUNTRY ----------------GNP($) PER CAPITA----------------PERSONS PER SQ. KM.
West Germany--------------10,940---------------------------------635
Netherlands----------------9,316---------------------------------346
Japan---------------------11,300---------------------------------840
Hongkong-------------------7,136-------------------------------4,850
South Korea----------------2,150-------------------------------1,121
India------------------------270---------------------------------606
Philippines----------------1,740---------------------------------161
Ethiopia---------------------284----------------------------------27
Zambia-----------------------730-----------------------------------8
Source: Statistical Abstract of U.S. World Development Report 1987
I also noticed that the "esteemed" Manuel Gallegos III has a factual error in his article, which should put up a red flag for any intelligent reader concerned with accuracy. For example he claims that the Catholic Church retracted the excommunication of Galileo. This is false. Galileo was never excommunicated. He was "condemend on SUSPICION of heresy", which in itself is a debatable ruling since Copernicanism had never been declared heretical by the Church. Obviously the tribunal in Galileo's time was wrong to issue such a condemnation, but so is Gallegos today wrong when it comes to the facts.
Needless to say, benign0's admiration is quite misplaced. But thanks anyway for helping keep this thread active (har har!)