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EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

We have an extremely rapid upward trend but it seems like the peak has been reached.

It is difficult to imagine a more rapid upward trend than we can see on the EUR/SGD chart. The Euro strengthened against many currencies, but this did not lead to such a significant increase relative to another currency. At the moment it is likely that the price has reached a peak, especially amid disappointing statistics from the Eurozone. This week the market received data that indicates slower economic growth in the EU. Germany's GDP in the 2nd quarter amounted to only 0.8% yoy, while the market expected a GDP growth of 1.9%. The volumes of industrial manufacturing in the Eurozone fell in June by 0.6%, although this is in line with expectations. The eurozone's GDP is only 0.6% in Q2, which is also in line with the expectation of investors.

Thus, the Euro doesn't have enough stimulus for growth. The Singapore dollar gets the opportunity to consolidate at least at the current levels and prevent a further falling in price. During the last five months the SGD has changed in price from 1.4845 EUR up to EUR 1.602. It should be noted that the Singapore dollar is now at the level of November 2015. This is another reason why we say that the peak has been reached.

Next week the Singapore dollar can be supported due to the release of new statistics about industrial production volumes for July and the consumer prices index. The latest data on the economy of Singapore is showing a pretty good economic situation: retail sales in June grew by 1.9% and continue to grow for the fourth consecutive month.

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

We forecast a bullish movement for the pair in the recent future.

Today we would focus our analysis on the USD/CHF currency pair. The price recently managed to reach areas above 0.9639, and we expect this bullish momentum to continue, possibly as fr as 0.9800.

After trading between 0.9639-0.9600 for several days (which are the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels), the pair overcame this fluctuation and reached a new high at 0.9733. The old resistance at 0.9639 turned into a support level, while the pair acquired a new resistance at 0.9763 (which also helps to form a double top pattern on the chart).

Now the price of the USD/CHF can be seen oscillating between 0.9693 and 0.9763. It is demonstrating a markedly bullish character; the RSI indicator also agrees that the pair is located in a bullish trend.

This is why we expect that the USD/CHF would be able to break its nearby resistance level at 0.9763 and continue moving upward. Our next resistance today is located at 0.9800 and might also be tested, if the first one is successfully overcome. As long as the pair is able to stay above its older channel at 0.9639-0.9600, then expect further growth.

At the moment of this article’s publication the pair is trading around 0.9650 and most trading indicators show a strong sell suggestion.

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CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast


Positive economic data from Japan significantly impacted the rates. Seems like formation of the new upward trend.

The rates continue in the frames of the upward trend, but we can see on the chart formation of a weak downtrend. Formation of a new trend is based on the decreasing of oil prices and worsening of trade relations between the United States and Canada.
This week the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to the positive data on the economy. The country's GDP unexpectedly grew in the 2nd quarter by 1%, while it was expected growth in just 0.6%. Such a growth is the most rapid growth in the Japan's economy since more than 2 years. we hadn't seen the same significant growth since the 1st quarter of 2015. In annual terms, GDP growth was +4%, exceeding forecasts in 1.5%. It should also be noted that Japan's GDP grew for the sixth quarter in a row. Consumer spending indicator increased by 0.9% in Q2, exceeding the expected level in almost 2 times. And the volume of industrial production in June rose by 2.2% amid expectations of 1.6%.

Thus, amid extremely positive statistics from Japan, it was very hard for canadian dollar to resist the yen. Strengthening of JPY would be even more rapid, but it was prevented by a factor of geopolitical tensions between the USA and North Korea, although the situation has been normalized to the usual level these week.

Today the market is waiting for information from Canada's index of consumer prices in July, but likely it's not necessary to expect for significant strengthening of the CAD, given that oil is decreasing again amid information about achieving of the maximum levels of shale oil extraction in the USA over the past 2 years. Crude oil stocks fell significantly this week, but the increase in oil production will lead to rapid recovery of oil reserves. In addition, analysts have lowered their forecasts about demand of oil in China. It should be noted that If China started a massive shift to electric transportation, in accordance with the global trend, it would negatively impact the demand for oil in this country in the future.

Oscillators MACD, Stochastics give contrary signals. In this situation, the most optimal would be to open the short deals upon medium term trading. For those who use short term strategies it's possible to open the deals to BUY, in accordance with Stochastics' signal making a profit on the price correction.

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Weekly Market Overview

An update on the Euro and the American dollar in light of recent events.

This week our gaze draws back to Europe. In our previous look at the euro we talked about how much it has strengthened this year, based on positive economic reports and favorable election outcomes. Let’s take a look at the situation in Europe now.

The euro has been the shining star of Forex trading this year, gaining a remarkable 11.5% on the USD so far in 2017. In recent weeks investors’ appetites towards the euro increased amid an expectation that the European Central Bank will change its monetary policy toward a less dovish approach that supports an even stronger euro. Some analysts have even suggested that we may see a parity between the EUR and the British pound in the coming months. However, ECB chief Mario Draghi has not given any real indication that he plans to cut the stimulus program anytime soon.

Now the euro is easing a little bit against the dollar as analysts prepare for the upcoming Jackson Hole conference on August 24-26, where Draghi will speak. The small drops in the price of the euro are likely a result of investors’ impatience regarding the ECB decision on monetary policy.

On Wednesday the euro dropped from its 2015 height level and went 2% down to 1.1691 USD and 1.13960 CHF.

Furthermore, the euro was able to gain on the dollar because of the political turmoil in the United States. Recent tensions with North Korea, as well as a neo-nazi attack both rattled the United States over the past two weeks. However, things seem to be cooling down with North Korea, and the US released some favorable data on retail sales (up by 0.6 in July) which helped the USD find a more solid ground. If the economy fares well and inflation increases, investors would again look to the dollar as an attractive trading instrument and expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again.

However, economic data from the United States has fluctuated throughout 2017. Inflation and wage growth haven’t been at the expected levels, and the Federal Reserve has been extremely careful about adjusting its policies. This is why right now another rate hike is unlikely. Even if rates are increased in the coming months, analysts don’t expect multiple hikes, as was initially planned.

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AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & H4 Chart

We have a bearish reversal underway or possibly a buying opportunity.

The AUD/JPY currency pair sold off heavily this month following the retesting of the new area of resistance between 89.00 and 89.30 which we referred to in our last report about the pair. Last week the pair made a top smaller than the previous one, which means we are in a downside wave. We have to be careful because we recognized a bottom higher than the previous one, so that we have two trend lines - one for the uptrend and a second one for the downtrend.

The pair has a support area at 85.70-85.90. The prices reached it last week, so we can expect an upside movement this week, in addition to the pair reaching the 50% from the rising wave from 81.65 to 89.29. We can predict the pair will begin another series of impulse waves.

The Next Few Days

After we analyzed the chart well we can discover that we would work on the breaking out of the pair. If the AUD/JPY breaks the downtrend we will buy the pair and keep our targets at 88.20 and 89.05. Conversely, if it breaks the uptrend we will sell the pair and keep the target at 84.62 (61.8% Fibonacci). Still, we predict the pair will break the downtrend and rise again, so we can take buy positions now with a small lot at the current level 86.15 and keep the T/P level at 86.85, then wait for the breaking out.

This week the markets don’t offer any hot news from Australia or Japan but you have to be careful about any uncalendared news that can change the market direction.

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NZD/JPY: Short Review and Forecast
The downward trend was formed a month ago and continues amid positive economic news from Japan. The NZD is under the pressure of decreased prices for food and raw materials.

The rates of the NZD/JPY since the beginning of the month are in the frames of the downward trend formed just a month ago. Despite the recent positive data about economy of New Zealand, where we can see a Federal budget surplus by 1.5 billion NZD, the New Zealand currency fell against major currencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the NZD did not have enough incentives for growth amid the absence of news about the economy. In addition, the NZD was under the pressure of the decreased prices for raw materials and food, which reached annual minimums this week. The price for wheat fell from $560 down to $403. At the same time the JPY had many stimuli to strengthen.

The PMI index of business activity in August was 52.8 against the expected level of 52.3. The volume of imports and exports grew less than the expected - 16.3% versus 13.4%, respectively, and in the long term increased the pressure on the trade balance. However, in July the trade surplus in Japan narrowed by 17%, though it's 418 billion yen, exceeding the expectations of investors. A week earlier the yen strengthened due to the unexpected GDP growth by 1% and an increase in consumer spending which was almost twice higher than the market expectation. Therefore, the Japanese economy now looks better for investors.

Tomorrow the NZD may get a chance to strengthen, if new data about the trade balance of New Zealand pleases investors. At the moment, oscillators (MACD, Stochastics, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone. The deals to BUY would be the most effective in this situation. There's a possibility to make a profit on the expected price correction.

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EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

The EUR/JPY is at a crossroads after the channel breaking.

This month the euro has moved against the Japanese Yen within around 370 pips. Although the prices broke the price channel down, the pair didn’t decline a lot this month and it returned back to trade now at 130.75 around this month’s opening price. In our last report we recommended to buy the pair around 130.73 and the pair is back now to the same levels - it didn’t hit our target, so we can close our previous order now and think about another opportunity.

The EUR/JPY pair broke the channel down and retested it, and the sell signal is still valid. Although it rose to test the key resistance level 131.38, we can keep our negative vision for the pair; that is in case it is still trade below the resistance level. We can wait for the Stochastic indicator at 96 level to cross over to sell the pair.

The Next Few Days

Based on this simple analysis of the pair after breaking the channel we would wait for a sell opportunity. Once the prices break the moving average down we would sell the pair, perhaps around 129.40. We would keep our first target at 126.24 and the second one at 122.35, that is in case the pair is still trading below the resistance level 131.38.

This week the market does not offer much in terms of hot economic news from the European Union or Japan but we have to be careful about the American employment change and the jobs report on Friday.

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The Dollar Moving Down

Amid the latest economic reports, the American currency is losing positions against all major currencies.

The dollar fell sharply against all major currencies after the labor market data release in the US, which was worse than expected. As reported by the US Department of Labor, last month 156,000 jobs were created, which is below the projected 180,000. The indicator for July was revised downwards from 209,000 to 189,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, instead of the previously forecasted 4.3%. All of this indicates a worsening of the situation on the labor market. The report also shows the average hourly rate grew by 0.1% in August, compared to the expected growth of 0.2%. One of the main indicators of inflation, the Core PCE, has decreased to 1.4%, while at the beginning of the year it was above 1.8%. Such statistics practically leaves no chance for another increase in the discount rate this year.

Federal Reserve representatives have expressed their concerns about the low dynamics of consumer prices over the recent months and its impact on the future monetary policy of the US Central Bank. Soon after the US statistics release, information from the ECB suddenly appeared. Sources in the European Central Bank, quoted by Bloomberg, declared that the plan for ending the quantitative easing program could be ready no earlier than December. "The politicians of the European Central Bank may not be ready to curtail the quantitative easing program until December," the sources said.

After the release of US statistics, the EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.1970, approaching a two-and-a-half-year high on Tuesday (1.2069), but after a verbal intervention by the ECB, it returned to 1.1900. Earlier the euro surrendered its position after reports about the increasing number of ECB officials who are concerned about the recent strengthening of the European currency.

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USD/SEK: Review & Forecast

The SEK achieved its level from November 2014 thanks to the weakened USD.

The steady downward trend continues, but at the moment the rates have consolidated in the range SEK 7.908 - 8.0. The market hasn't received any economic statistics or news from Sweden which would have affected the Swedish Krona, but the stable economic situation in the Eurozone isn't putting pressure on its value.


Since the end of August the rates have been influenced by the unstable political situation in the United States, the escalation of the conflict between the US and North Korea, and disappointing economic statistics in the United States. As a result, the value of the SEK has reached the level from November 2014, and the downward trend became more rapid. Falling to the minimum for many years began on August 25 when the FED Chairman Janet Yellen did not make any statements related with the country's monetary policy during the symposium in Jackson Hole, which confirmed investors' doubts of a further increase of the interest rate. Then the geopolitical factors, unemployment growth by 4.4%, a reduced volume of manufacturing production in July in 3.3% contrinuted to negatively affecting the USD value.

At the same time it is likely that the minimum has already been achieved and the current phase of consolidation can be the beginning of a flat trend. However, today the dollar can get some support from the release of new economic statistics: the market is waiting for the data on trade balance, and the PMI indices of business activity. Next week we also expect data about retail sales and consumer price indices.

At the moment volatility is very low. The MACD and RSI oscillators do not give us any signals for trading positions. In this situation it's necessary to pay attention to the entry points SEK 7,908 and 8.0, the achievement of which would indicate the completion of the consolidation phase. Now, the most effective course would be the deals to Buy in medium-term trading.