Will teams tank to avoid favorites?
If unbeaten Iran is the hot favorite to win the 27th FIBA-Asia crown, it’s possible teams will tank to avoid facing Hamed Haddadi and company in the semifinals on Saturday. It’s a likely scenario if coaches are looking beyond the second round of eliminations and Friday’s knockout quarterfinals.
In the quarterfinals, the crossover pairings will match No. 1 against No. 4 and No. 2 against No. 3, meaning the top finisher of Groups A-B will take on the last qualifier of Groups C-D and the top finisher of Groups C-D will meet the last qualifier of Groups A-B. Quarterfinal losers are automatically out of contention for the three Asian zone slots in the FIBA World Cup in Spain next year so it’s a must-win situation for the eight contenders.
The placings in Groups C-D are almost predictable. Iran is expected to be No. 1, Korea No. 2 and China No. 3 as those three teams should breeze past Group D qualifiers Kazakhstan, Bahrain and India in the second round. In Groups A-B, there could be some tanking involved if teams don’t like their chances against China in the knockout quarterfinals. If China ends up No. 3, a team might bring itself down to No. 3 to clash with likely No. 2 Korea in the quarterfinals instead. That depends on if a team figures it has a better chance to survive Korea than China.
No team in Groups A-B would like to finish No. 4 after the second round because that means engaging Iran in the quarterfinals. So expect teams to desperately slug it out to finish at least No. 3. Still, it’s not a closed book that Iran will step all over No. 4 in the quarterfinals. At the FIBA-Asia Championships in Wuhan two years ago, Iran finished No. 1 out of Groups A-B and was upset by No. 4 Jordan from Groups C-D in the knockout quarterfinals. Iran wound up with an overall record of 8-1 but placed only fifth because of the shock loss to Jordan which advanced all the way to the finals, losing to China by a point in the title game.
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The intriguing possibility is teams tanking to evade Iran in the semifinals. If tanking to “fix” matchups in the quarterfinals is medium-term planning, then tanking for the semifinals is long-term planning. In the semifinals, Iran from Groups C-D will play the winner of the quarterfinal match between No. 2 from Groups A-B and No. 3 from Groups C-D. That’s assuming Iran beats No. 4 from Groups A-B in the quarterfinals. So if you’re the Philippines and you don’t want to meet Iran either in the quarterfinals or semifinals, you can’t finish No. 2 or No. 4 after the second round. That means to avoid Iran in the quarterfinals and semifinals, Gilas must finish either No. 1 or No. 3 out of Groups A-B.
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If Gilas ends up No. 2 after the second round, it will play No. 3 from Groups C-D in the quarterfinals and that could be China. If Gilas beats China, it moves on to play Iran in the semifinals assuming Iran advances, too. However, losing to Iran may not be a bad thing in the semifinals because the loser will move on to play the other semifinal loser in the battle for the last ticket to Spain. Of course, the two semifinal winners are guaranteed slots to the FIBA World Cup outright.
If Gilas winds up No. 3 after the second round, it will play No. 2 from Groups C-D which could be Korea in the quarterfinals. If Gilas wins, it moves on to play the winner of the quarterfinal match between No. 1 from Groups A-B, likely Chinese-Taipei, and No. 4 from Groups C-D, likely Kazakhstan. That could set up a rematch between Gilas and Chinese-Taipei in the semifinals – a mouth-watering prospect for fans and politicians alike.
The way things look, Gilas might be better off finishing No. 3 instead of No. 2 after the second round to avoid facing China in the quarterfinals and Iran in the semifinals. But that’s putting the horse before the cart. At the moment, Gilas must try to win all its games and assess its situation down the road. Tanking will be too early a strategy at the moment because there are unpredictable things that could happen along the way such as Iran or China or Korea losing a game or two in the second round. Besides, tanking could backfire in the end. Taking one step backward to advance two steps forward may be a smart thing to do sometimes but holding back in a game could haunt a team when the smoke of battle clears.
Will teams tank to avoid favorites | Sports, News, The Philippine Star | philstar.com
Originally Posted by sUnDoLp
