PH is now Asia's strongest-performing economy, says expert

[kageron]

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strong ang economy recently lang naa napud gani nanira nga establishment.

[eezychair]

PH growth still not felt by Pinoys - economist | ABS-CBN News

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippine economy posted a 5.9% GDP growth in the second quarter, one of the highest growth rates in Southeast Asia, but IBON Foundation executive director Sonny Africa says the growth is still not being felt by most Filipinos.

"It's always good to watch the numbers but we have to ask : where's the growth coming from, and what does it mean for most Filipinos. The reality is Philippine growth is not benefitting the poor," he told ANC.

The Philippine economy grew by 5.9% in the second quarter. Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the second quarter growth was boosted by government spending, consumption and the robust growth of the services sector.

Africa noted the first semester figures show increased government spending, but still not enough private sector spending.

"The idea is the Philippines is picking up momentum, good governance translating to better economic prospects, but if you look at the first semester, apparently it's only the government that's convinced... The private sector is not investing yet, it is not spending on construction. The main source of stimulus is still the government," he said.

"The question is why is the private sector not buying into this supposedly good prospects for Philippine economy. It's putting your money where your mouth is. If you believe the economy is going to be improving, business should be spending more."

Africa said the government is spending so much on the conditional cash transfer program (Pantawid Pamilya), but this does not address the underlying problems of the economy.

"The CCT is a bridge to nowhere. If they don't resolve the basic problem, jobs aren't being created in the Philippines, the biggest source of consumption expenditures is overseas remittances, the long-term problems of the Philippines will remain," he noted.

Africa said the government should build domestic agriculture and manufacturing, in order to create more jobs.

"Yes in a way it is against wave of liberalization in the last 3 decades, but has it been a good thing? Clearly not. Philippine growth in the last decade has been fastest in the post-Marcos era, yet unemployment has been the highest since 1947 when the Philippines started monitoring unemployment. That is not an aberration. The fact that domestic agriculture and domestic manufacturing has collapsed in the last decade explains why unemployment has soared," he said.

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Lexmark will be cutting down 1,100 jobs by 2015. I don't have figures for the manufacturing/exporting sector, but I know of several companies in Cebu that have scaled down production, retrenching workers and/or having 3 to 4 day workweeks, if not completely shutting down.

Yup, it's seems to be only the government is convinced with its figures, and of course several active istorya.net members who are relentless in arguing that all is getting better.

[eezychair]

Is 2012 looking gloomy?

by John Mangun
PHILIPPINE gross domestic product (GDP) numbers are scheduled for release today and if the data come in near the current estimates of around 5 percent, the economy is in trouble. A slowing of growth by 20 percent from first quarter 2012 would knock a large hole in the government’s estimated target for 2012 of 6 percent.
The private sector has done all it can through increasing revenues and increasing profits but government policy is becoming a heavier and heavier anchor around the neck of the economy. All the talk about the Philippines being a bright spot on the world economic stage is premised on a follow-through of the first-quarter economic activity and that does not look like it is going happen.

Foreign direct investment is a disaster this year. Originally the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas had forecast $2 billion coming in and in June lowered its estimate by a staggering 40 percent to only $1.2 billion. If the world considers the Philippines as the healthiest economy in the region, they are not willing to put their money where their mouth is. While the stock market is seeing foreign money coming in, the rest of the economy is not on the radar.

If the government thinks that its mining-policy disaster is not part of the problem, it is sadly mistaken. The Philippines has some attractive financial and business qualities that make it a foreign-fund destination. But given the choice between putting $1 billion in the local stock market and committing $5 billion to a multi-year project, there is no choice. And it is the government’s liability completely. No one in his right mind puts big money on the table when there is uncertainty. While 20 years from now rainbow-colored chickens that lay solid gold eggs may inhabit the Philippines, six months down the road in the Philippines is a big question mark.

The government is sure to spin any decrease in economic growth on external factors. However, any mention of the Philippines’s future being better based on an improving situation in the West should set off flashing red lights. If the government counts on an improving situation in the West to help PHL, 2013 will be a calamity.

The focus of any US policy action is to boost economic growth. But after throwing in $2 trillion over the last three years, economic growth is actually going down. Dr. Marc Faber says this about past Federal Reserve money policies: “It has already impoverished the US economy.” It would take “massive easing, a huge balance-sheet expansion,” to boost economic activity in the US which is unlikely in the face of the already unimaginable $14-trillion debt.

Europe, on the other hand, cares very little about economic growth. They are where the US was several years ago, trying to save their banking system. Countries like Spain are bankrupt but it is the banks that own the debt. If the countries default, the banks collapse.

Economic-growth policies come after the banking fire has been put out.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said this: “The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” and “whatever” is not economic growth.

Preserving the euro is preserving the banks. If Spain drops the euro and goes back to the peseta, the peseta would probably be worth 50 percent of the euro, effectively doubling their euro-denominated debt. There would be no way to pay and the banks collapse. Paying the debt on a one-for-one euro in pesetas would leave the banks holding a currency that would only have value in Spain. The banks collapse.

The only choice the ECB has is to absorb the Spanish debt. For the Philippines, there is no global savior from ineffective government economic policy. It is time now for the government to do whatever it takes to get foreign direct investment, to get local companies to expand, and to make clear rules to implement those polices. Why am I not optimistic that will happen?

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If the effects of this strong economy are to be felt by the majority, the government must move to create more jobs in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors where most laborers would benefit, not just in BPOs and the sending off of more overseas workers. If one still feels the protectionist policies are not what is causing the apprehension of Foreign Direct Investors, perhaps UNCERTAINTY is. Whatever it is, investors put their money where they are certain it will grow. Unfortunately, the Philippines is NOT it yet, until the government starts getting its acts together to attract more investments and not just banner glowing economic figures only they seem to be proud of.

Here's more reading to which I expect the 'optimists' to rebut, if they may and if they can (beware: yellow language in use in this column by Dean Dela Paz)

The 6.4% illusion

[KlaytoN]

We may not see and feel the progress overnight, but we're getting there and numbers don't lie.. Just continue to pray, be vigilant and be supportive of the present admin.

U.S. Companies Getting More Requests for SEA Postings

"Not long ago, places like Indonesia and the Philippines were considered backwaters or hardship postings by American managers... a new survey shows that now U.S. companies are getting an increasing number of requests from around the world for transfers to this corner of Asia, which on average is doing much better than the rest of the world."

"Just two years ago, less than 30% of the executives surveyed said they were getting requests from employees wanting to transfer to Southeast Asia. This year, more than 50% said they were getting such requests. The surge in interest was more apparent in countries like the Philippines, where two years ago only 15% of the U.S. company managers surveyed said they were getting transfer requests from the outside. This year, 40% of them said they had people asking to move to Manila."

“There is no growth in Europe and no growth in the U.S., and in other emerging markets the growth opportunities are not quite this strong,” said John Goyer, senior director of Southeast Asia at the U.S. Chamber.

U.S. Companies Getting More Requests for SEA Postings - Southeast Asia Real Time - WSJ

[eezychair]

We may not see and feel the progress overnight, but we're getting there and numbers don't lie.. Just continue to pray, be vigilant and be supportive of the present admin.

U.S. Companies Getting More Requests for SEA Postings

"Not long ago, places like Indonesia and the Philippines were considered backwaters or hardship postings by American managers... a new survey shows that now U.S. companies are getting an increasing number of requests from around the world for transfers to this corner of Asia, which on average is doing much better than the rest of the world."

"Just two years ago, less than 30% of the executives surveyed said they were getting requests from employees wanting to transfer to Southeast Asia. This year, more than 50% said they were getting such requests. The surge in interest was more apparent in countries like the Philippines, where two years ago only 15% of the U.S. company managers surveyed said they were getting transfer requests from the outside. This year, 40% of them said they had people asking to move to Manila."

“There is no growth in Europe and no growth in the U.S., and in other emerging markets the growth opportunities are not quite this strong,” said John Goyer, senior director of Southeast Asia at the U.S. Chamber.

U.S. Companies Getting More Requests for SEA Postings - Southeast Asia Real Time - WSJ

This is indeed encouraging. I would imagine though that the increased requests for postings in the SEA region is more for the economical viewpoint of the executive/employee as it is a fact that they are able to improve their standard of living in areas where their dollars allow them to spend less than if they stayed in the US or Europe. You only have to look at the lifestyles of the expats here to realize this. Still, I hope that they expand their business or better yet for more Foreign companies to invest in the Philippines. Question is, is the government doing enough to encourage such investments?

[æRLO]

example of new trend in business policy..



wagtanga ng 60/40, awn tag asa puniton ang mga Pinoy.. ahehehehe

Jack, you did not just pull a "look at Europe"... Everyone knows Europe benefited from global liberalization, it is just in recent times that they were outsmarted by the Asians. 60/40 does not protect the middle and lower classes, that is a false notion. It only protects the interests of the country's richest. it's just a well-fabricated sense of nationalism.

[PaYaSo]

no matter how long our arguments are we cant change the fact that we grew 5.9% this quarter. lets save our negativity on the next quarter bcn maubos pa ang growth nato by the next quarter. pray lng ta

[hobie]

As I expected before I clicked on this thread to read the comments, mga Negative comments. hehehe ..No further comments sa mga nang comment.

[eezychair]

no matter how long our arguments are we cant change the fact that we grew 5.9% this quarter. lets save our negativity on the next quarter bcn maubos pa ang growth nato by the next quarter. pray lng ta

It is not the length of the argument, but the meat of it. Like you can continue to banner the 5.9% growth, but if you truly understand it, you will realize it could have been better OR worse. If the government takes criticism constructively and doesn't resort to window dressing or presenting a mediocre performances as exceptional to the unlearned, then they would be moving their asses to perform even better and not be complacent.

Sarcastically attributing negativity to lowering growth rates can only be opined by schnooks who should grow up and mature.

[cobraKing]

unsay kalamboan sa atong economiya krnbasin puros lng ni survey ha?